Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb88e…35a4 politics 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%5W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$13
sports 25% −$9
other 12% −$3
culture 2% −$1
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 64 -11.4% -19.9% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -27.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -34.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -41.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses5 / 59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage272d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $50 $0 -1%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $72 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $72 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $71 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 24 $533 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 17 $1 $0 -40%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $419 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $92 −$2 -2%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 09 $74 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $151 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $72 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $188 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $153 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 21 $149 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $601 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $468 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 05 $9 −$2 -17%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Dec 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $1 $0 -11%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 27 $76 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 23 $1 $0 -14%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 23 $1 $0 -33%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 19 $1 $0 -42%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $1 $0 -20%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 17 $82 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $72 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $72 104d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $72 110d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 120d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $71 123d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $72 131d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $72 138d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 141d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $71 141d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $71 146d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $72 147d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $72 147d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 148d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 149d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 150d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 151d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $70 152d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $70 153d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $70 154d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $70 154d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 155d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $73 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.23 · official $13.23 (match) · 281 history records