Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb88f…b1b0 other 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%19W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$37
sports 22% −$20
culture 9% −$11
economics 8% −$4
politics 8% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 263 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses19 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)263 / 263
History coverage142d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 263 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $841 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $374 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $392 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $590 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $167 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $142 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $306 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $237 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $140 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $412 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $963 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $358 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $154 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $463 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $172 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $283 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $319 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $458 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $242 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $405 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 5h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 7h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 17h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 18h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 23h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 24h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $62 26h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 27h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 35h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 37h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 42h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 44h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 45h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 47h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 47h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $62 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1474 history records