Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb891…e65a tech 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 747d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,409 (-9%) realized −$1,452 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2,631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$869
30 days+$869
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$476
crypto 25% −$1,823
politics 19% +$1,839
other 18% −$75
tech 8% −$485
economics 2% −$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +160.3% +135.5% 100% 67% +293.2%
≤90d 7 +89.9% +71.8% 100% 86% +93.2%
all 44 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 30% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 30% -19.0%
10% -24.4% 20% -26.7%
15% -31.7% 16% -33.8%
20% -38.4% 11% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +114% too few recent
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$204 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

747d coverage
Net worth$2,631
Realized−$1,452
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)44 / 56
History coverage747d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1,514 $1,666 +$152 (+10%)
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 73¢ 82¢ $141 $158 +$17 (+12%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $156 $155 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $135 $134 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $117 $116 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $114 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $76 $103 +$27 (+36%)
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 63¢ 80¢ $67 $84 +$17 (+26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 9¢ $200 $25 −$175 (-87%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 34¢ 49¢ $17 $24 +$8 (+44%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +48%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 5? Jun 15 $29 +$2 +7%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 15 $200 +$853 +426%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 19 $121 +$29 +24%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 19 $315 +$185 +59%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Apr 19 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? Apr 19 $410 +$189 +46%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Kayla Day Mar 29 $104 −$104 -100%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Mar 29 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Mar 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Mar 29 $150 −$150 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Marton Fucsovics vs Christopher O'Connell Mar 29 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark Mar 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Mar 29 $2,000 −$1,036 -52%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 27-February 2? Mar 29 $606 −$606 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Mar 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Dune win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Mar 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -66%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 11 $10 −$2 -22%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 11 $16 −$4 -25%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 11 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 11 $65 −$10 -15%
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 11 $126 −$16 -13%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 11 $4 −$1 -23%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 11 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 11 $173 −$21 -12%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 11 $60 −$14 -24%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Mar 11 $65 −$22 -34%
BNP Paribas Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Mar 11 $112 +$88 +79%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Diane Parry Mar 03 $158 +$272 +172%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? Feb 22 $38 +$7 +19%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $110 +$7 +6%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Feb 02 $134 +$24 +18%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? Feb 01 $2,995 −$1,895 -63%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 20 $200 −$160 -80%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 18 $1 $0 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition Jan 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 18 $1,200 +$92 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 05 $3 $0 -3%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conferenc Dec 20 $999 +$190 +19%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conferenc Dec 20 $1,000 +$261 +26%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jun 30 $1,000 +$1,467 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 54¢ $137 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $115 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $118 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $157 1h
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential el BUY Yes 63¢ $68 1h
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele BUY No 73¢ $3 1h
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele BUY No 73¢ $133 1h
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele BUY No 73¢ $7 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $27 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $78 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 13d
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 5? BUY Up 48¢ $2 54d
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 5? SELL Up 55¢ $28 54d
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 5? BUY Up 54¢ $27 54d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 76d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,630.58 · official $2,630.58 (match) · 624 history records