Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B8 0xb892…2ce1 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$886 (+28%) realized +$902 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$632per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$862
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -20.6% -28.1% 33% 33% +47.5%
≤30d 3 -20.6% -28.1% 33% 33% +47.5%
≤90d 3 -20.6% -28.1% 33% 33% +47.5%
all 3 -20.6% -28.1% 33% 33% +47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 33% +47.5%
10% -35.0% 33% +33.4%
15% -41.3% 33% +20.5%
20% -47.0% 33% +8.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +63% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$966 vs −$44 · ×21.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.93 per $1 lost it wins $10.93
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,744
Realized+$902
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$632
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Australia 86¢ 84¢ $1,117 $1,098 −$19 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? No 88¢ 88¢ $643 $647 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $26 −$9 -37%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 25 $1,288 +$966 +75%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $81 −$79 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 10¢ $16 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $26 1h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 86¢ $1,122 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $645 15h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $506 15h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $781 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $81 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,744.17 · official $1,744.17 (match) · 8 history records