Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb898…c47d crypto 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$28
14 days−$22
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$28
crypto 20% +$8
politics 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -14.5% -22.7% 20% 0% -19.2%
≤30d 18 +6.3% -3.8% 61% 56% -13.3%
≤90d 18 +6.3% -3.8% 61% 56% -13.3%
all 18 +6.3% -3.8% 61% 56% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 56% -13.3%
10% -13.0% 39% -21.6%
15% -21.4% 33% -29.1%
20% -29.1% 22% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage17d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $109 −$5 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $11 −$3 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $33 −$7 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $46 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $63 −$15 -23%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 05 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 27 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 27 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $49 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $12 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 38¢ $8 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $11 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $11 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $11 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $11 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $11 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 52¢ $11 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $0 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $0 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $0 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records