Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:47:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb89a…8daf other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-23%) realized −$76 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$75
crypto 32% −$30
sports 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.4% -46.1% 43% 14% -50.7%
≤30d 7 -40.4% -46.1% 43% 14% -50.7%
≤90d 7 -40.4% -46.1% 43% 14% -50.7%
all 7 -40.4% -46.1% 43% 14% -50.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.1% 14% -50.7%
10% -51.3% 14% -55.4%
15% -56.0% 14% -59.7%
20% -60.3% 14% -63.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$36 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$4 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 −$65 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $44 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 13h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 13h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.22 · official $121.22 (match) · 24 history records