Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb89b…1a22 weather 286 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,584 (+10%) realized +$5,577 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate81%231W / 53L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$323
7 days+$927
14 days+$426
30 days+$1,814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% +$2,729
world 3% +$2,678
politics 3% −$48
crypto 2% +$105
tech 0% −$83
other 0% −$20
sports 0% +$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +9.7% -0.7% 89% 16% -1.1%
≤30d 165 +7.4% -2.8% 90% 17% -5.5%
≤90d 284 +10.5% -0.0% 81% 25% -0.5%
all 284 +10.5% -0.0% 81% 25% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 25% -0.5%
10% -9.6% 19% -10.0%
15% -18.3% 14% -18.7%
20% -26.3% 10% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$35 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.87 per $1 lost it wins $3.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$5,577
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses231 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)284 / 286
History coverage62d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $147 $149 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon post "Tesla" on X this week? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? Jun 18 $780 −$11 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 17 $685 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $500 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $519 +$42 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $96 −$95 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $681 +$17 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $134 +$154 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $638 +$174 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $175 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $66 +$15 +22%
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $127 +$3 +3%
Will Trump post "Dana" or "White" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $146 +$4 +3%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $1,006 +$91 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $161 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 14 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $302 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $490 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $73 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Hottest" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,003 +$81 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $509 +$22 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $124 +$354 +284%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$32 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $302 +$9 +3%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 10 $68 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Trump post "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" on Truth Socia Jun 10 $200 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $726 +$23 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $179 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 09 $454 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 08 $501 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 08 $476 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$7 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $56 +$13 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $176 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon post "Tesla" on X this week? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $148 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? SELL No 98¢ $770 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $780 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $693 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $685 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $203 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $200 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $151 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $150 17h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $505 18h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $500 18h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $552 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $502 20h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $106 20h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $100 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $214 21h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 21h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $201 21h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $96 22h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $49 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $699 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $681 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $36 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $35 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.15 · official $254.15 (match) · 807 history records