Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb89c…b71d other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 629d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$857 (+6%) realized +$795 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$2,562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 629d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$4,408
other 22% +$118
crypto 7% −$448
world 2% +$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -36.8% -42.8% 43% 43% +33.7%
≤30d 7 -36.8% -42.8% 43% 43% +33.7%
≤90d 9 -16.8% -24.7% 56% 56% +33.8%
all 31 -12.1% -20.4% 55% 45% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 45% +19.9%
10% -28.0% 29% +8.4%
15% -35.0% 16% -2.1%
20% -41.4% 13% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$289 vs −$51 · ×5.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.89 per $1 lost it wins $6.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$2,562
Realized+$795
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage629d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 56¢ $2,000 $2,056 +$56 (+3%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 88¢ 94¢ $300 $321 +$21 (+7%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 77¢ 72¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $3,074 +$3,373 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,105 +$174 +16%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5,022 +$850 +17%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $20 +$16 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 13 $200 −$18 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 13 $300 +$32 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4PM ET Feb 13 $140 −$13 -9%
Will Infrared launch a token by December 31 2025? Feb 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 13 $300 +$57 +19%
Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 13 $100 +$7 +7%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jan 04 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Jan 04 $20 +$11 +54%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 04 $50 +$18 +35%
Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 27 $100 +$16 +16%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $500 −$22 -4%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Nov 24 $100 +$41 +41%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 24 $300 +$16 +5%
Over $80M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $50 −$9 -18%
Will Germany win on 2025-11-17? Nov 18 $20 +$6 +28%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 21 $400 +$113 +28%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Mar 26 $250 +$167 +67%
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? Oct 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,498 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $178 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $100 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $89 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $455 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $430 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $820 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $476 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $377 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $320 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $298 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $28 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $23 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $2 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $5 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $28 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $610 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $600 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,019 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $2,054 2h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2,028 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,105 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $5,022 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,562.39 · official $2,562.39 (match) · 146 history records