Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb89f…f169 other 184 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,069 (-1%) realized −$5,227 · open +$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate78%143W / 40L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,661per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$10,685now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$372
14 days+$727
30 days+$2,580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$5,557
politics 0% +$170
crypto 0% +$4
weather 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +12.2% +1.5% 100% 50% -6.8%
≤30d 24 -3.1% -12.3% 88% 21% -7.2%
≤90d 84 +1.6% -8.0% 83% 20% -7.2%
all 183 +2.7% -7.1% 78% 17% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 17% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 10% -19.1%
15% -24.1% 9% -26.9%
20% -31.5% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$3,076) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$649 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$10,685
Realized−$5,227
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses143 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage153d
Avg bet$2,661
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $10,527 $10,685 +$158 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,506 +$365 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $11,029 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10,194 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $5,588 −$417 -8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $82 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $719 +$89 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,079 +$83 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10,117 +$351 +4%
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 4? Jun 04 $62 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7,598 +$239 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,063 +$187 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2,237 +$58 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3,308 +$47 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $4,728 +$272 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $887 +$39 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $1,002 +$131 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $9,010 +$85 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $8,903 +$111 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $3,805 +$113 +3%
Will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure Through May 21, 10 PM ET May 22 $696 −$696 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3,211 +$109 +3%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 22 $4,740 +$1,261 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $7,977 +$140 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $88 −$87 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $1,001 +$67 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $227 −$123 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $3,652 +$148 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $1,000 +$87 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $7,480 +$387 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $800 +$69 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 6? May 06 $50 +$58 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 6? May 06 $42 −$31 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $629 +$262 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $6,495 +$12 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $184 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $574 +$200 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $1,933 +$85 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $579 +$30 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $1,058 +$37 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $61 +$90 +149%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1,071 +$42 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $6,598 +$133 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $941 +$81 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $4,037 +$123 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $6,450 −$60 -1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $1,192 −$99 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $1,634 +$82 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $84 +$16 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,285 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $67 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $47 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $490 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $111 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $71 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $196 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $124 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $93 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $22 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $25 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $154 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $30 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $240 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $55 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $403 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $302 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $8 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $20 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $188 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $17 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,684.88 · official $10,684.88 (match) · 1888 history records