Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B8 0xb8a5…ad6f other 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,573 (+1%) realized +$1,573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%35W / 124L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$1,139per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$689now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$168
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$88
other 37% +$206
sports 14% +$1,402
world 4% +$5
economics 4% −$5
culture 3% −$5
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -5.2% -14.2% 6% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 102 -8.8% -17.5% 7% 4% -9.2%
all 159 +0.4% -9.2% 22% 9% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 9% -8.8%
10% -17.9% 9% -17.5%
15% -25.8% 8% -25.5%
20% -33.1% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,338) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$7 · ×9.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$689
Realized+$1,573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses35 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)159 / 161
History coverage147d
Avg bet$1,139
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $385 $385 +$0 (+0%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $305 $305 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,946 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $653 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,730 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,807 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,798 −$2 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 08 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $789 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $68 −$68 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $2,118 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,129 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,115 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $503 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $510 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,881 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $3,317 −$4 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $53 +$63 +119%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $3,385 −$4 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 19 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,261 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $4,652 −$6 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,237 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $3,647 −$4 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $4,119 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,206 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $7,690 −$8 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $1,127 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $305 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $622 20h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $623 21h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $623 24h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $624 25h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $652 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $653 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $625 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $625 2d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $495 2d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $496 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $659 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $660 3d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $682 4d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $683 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $385 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $824 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $825 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $662 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $663 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $615 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $616 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $769 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $770 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $912 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $913 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $816 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $817 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $788 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $789 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $689.38 · official $689.38 (match) · 513 history records