trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1415%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $38 | $0 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 14 | $37 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $36 | +$2 | +6% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 09 | $35 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $36 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 19 | $16 | +$32 | +196% |
| Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? | Mar 18 | $8 | +$2 | +23% |
| Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? | Mar 18 | $17 | $0 | -2% |
| Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | Mar 16 | $95 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? | Dec 14 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? | Jul 17 | $0 | $0 | +150% |
| Will India invade Pakistan before July? | Jun 26 | $22 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? | Jun 02 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 02 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? | May 31 | $22 | $0 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 62% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 62% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +168.9% | +143.3% | 67% | 17% | -8.7% |
| all | 20 | +104.2% | +84.8% | 65% | 15% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +84.8% | 15% | -8.6% |
| 10% | +67.1% | 15% | -17.4% |
| 15% | +50.9% | 10% | -25.4% |
| 20% | +36.1% | 10% | -32.7% |