Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B8 0xb8a8…dd48 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$1
other 28% +$1
politics 15% +$1
tech 4% $0
culture 4% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 0% -9.3%
all 41 +0.6% -9.0% 56% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage468d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 91¢ 92¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $3 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $56 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $26 +$3 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $28 −$2 -9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $28 $0 +1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 18 $12 $0 -2%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Offi Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jun 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 07 $1 $0 -7%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Apr 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 27 $11 $0 -1%
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $28-31m on opening weekend? Apr 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 26 $11 $0 -1%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio Apr 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $24 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $13 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Maryland win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $28 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $17 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $27 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $28 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $4 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $24 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $21 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $26 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.36 · official $28.36 (match) · 107 history records