Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8aa…e5e5 other 48 markets active 5h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% $0
world 34% −$2
politics 17% +$3
sports 9% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 17 -1.0% -10.4% 35% 0% -10.2%
all 48 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage280d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $69 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $2 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $33 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $34 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $34 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $2 $0 -11%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $16 +$4 +25%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 08 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $31 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Sep 30 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Asse Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $32 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 6h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $32 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $24 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $8 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $19 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $13 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $2 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $35 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $3 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $29 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $27 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $6 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $15 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records