Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb8ab…0589
other · 13 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$376 -50%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$327 · open −$49
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$361
Realized−$327
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage137d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 7 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $196 $178 −$18 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 34¢ 14¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-60%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 09 $94 −$94 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026? Jan 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Jan 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jan 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$19
world 31% −$230
politics 20% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.83 · official $360.83 (match) · 23 history records