Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B8 0xb8ab…2e0f other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-26%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$15
sports 26% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.9% -31.2% 50% 50% -49.6%
≤30d 4 -23.9% -31.2% 50% 50% -49.6%
≤90d 4 -23.9% -31.2% 50% 50% -49.6%
all 4 -23.9% -31.2% 50% 50% -49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 50% -49.6%
10% -37.8% 50% -54.4%
15% -43.8% 50% -58.8%
20% -49.3% 25% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.69 · official $9.69 (match) · 10 history records