Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb8ab…6c0b crypto 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+4%) realized +$50 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate70%175W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$40
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$35
other 2% −$6
sports 1% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 +6.3% -3.9% 72% 58% -6.3%
≤30d 249 +1.4% -8.2% 70% 54% -8.0%
≤90d 249 +1.4% -8.2% 70% 54% -8.0%
all 249 +1.4% -8.2% 70% 54% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 54% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 41% -16.8%
15% -25.0% 29% -24.8%
20% -32.4% 16% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses175 / 74
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)249 / 252
History coverage11d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 48¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+107%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $80 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$5 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.30 · official $8.26 (match) · 745 history records