Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8ad…0e38 sports 731 markets active 6d ago coverage 43d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,281 (-6%) realized −$1,281 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%420W / 311L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day53.8pace
Fees−$256est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$504
14 days−$1,037
30 days−$1,273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$1,257
crypto 19% −$186
other 3% −$94
weather 1% −$23
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -6.8% -15.6% 65% 34% -20.1%
≤30d 296 -5.7% -14.7% 60% 39% -18.0%
≤90d 731 -1.8% -11.1% 57% 37% -16.3%
all 731 -1.8% -11.1% 57% 37% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 37% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 24% -24.3%
15% -27.4% 15% -31.6%
20% -34.5% 10% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses420 / 311
Est. fees paid−$256
Open positions0
Markets (closed)731 / 731
History coverage43d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day53.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 731 Trades
no open positions (145 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $332 −$305 -92%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$6 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -66%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $35 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$15 -75%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $177 −$177 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$25 +159%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$5 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$10 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$25 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $71 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $57 +$45 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$13 -40%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $112 −$112 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $106 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$3 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$15 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $35 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $60 +$8 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$7 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 90¢ $307 6d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 29¢ $9 6d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 48¢ $15 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner SELL Misa Esports 77¢ $25 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 75¢ $25 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $0 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $30 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2499 history records