Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb8af…0550 crypto 395 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,719 (-8%) realized −$4,807 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%113W / 227L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,103
7 days−$1,651
14 days−$4,521
30 days−$4,655
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$2,976
tech 9% −$3,235
sports 5% +$372
other 5% +$1,390
finance 1% −$404
politics 1% −$210
world 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +1.3% -8.4% 26% 26% -25.0%
≤30d 328 -6.2% -15.1% 34% 34% -17.5%
≤90d 340 -8.2% -17.0% 33% 33% -18.3%
all 340 -8.2% -17.0% 33% 33% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 33% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 32% -26.1%
15% -32.2% 29% -33.3%
20% -38.8% 25% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$110 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1,362
Realized−$4,807
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses113 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions10
Markets (closed)340 / 395
History coverage38d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $400 $371 −$29 (-7%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 40¢ $100 $337 +$238 (+238%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Yes 5¢ 26¢ $50 $246 +$196 (+391%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+52%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 26¢ $150 $56 −$94 (-62%)
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 6¢ 8¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+20%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $150 $8 −$142 (-94%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 187 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 +$361 +704%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $72 −$38 -53%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$271 +264%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $103 +$587 +572%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 +$728 +709%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$230 +746%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$75 +148%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $77 +$264 +344%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- Jun 15 $26 +$599 +2330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$14 +331%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $26 +$33 +128%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$16 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $65 +$368 +569%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 13 $20 +$32 +157%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $33 −$32 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$23 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $412 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 3¢ $26 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $24 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-1 BUY 2¢ $15 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 3¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $373 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will France vs. Seneg BUY 2¢ $51 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-1 BUY 1¢ $26 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16 BUY 2¢ $26 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 3¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 2h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 2h
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $690 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $26 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $26 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $26 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 3¢ $21 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in BUY 3¢ $24 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-1 BUY 3¢ $51 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end i BUY 5¢ $26 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,362.45 · official $1,923.44 · 1158 history records