Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8b1…944f crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$295 (-37%) realized −$257 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$262
14 days−$298
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$294
crypto 19% −$39
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -39.8% -45.6% 11% 11% -73.3%
≤30d 34 -22.7% -30.0% 41% 41% -61.3%
≤90d 34 -22.7% -30.0% 41% 41% -61.3%
all 34 -22.7% -30.0% 41% 41% -61.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 41% -61.3%
10% -36.7% 32% -65.0%
15% -42.8% 26% -68.4%
20% -48.4% 24% -71.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$21 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$257
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage14d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $229 $227 −$1 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $237 −$230 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$89 +442%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $38 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $80 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 6d
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.75 · official $227.75 (match) · 64 history records