Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8b2…3636 crypto 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%61W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$1
world 19% −$4
other 17% −$1
weather 6% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 50 -1.0% -10.4% 96% 0% -9.6%
all 66 -2.1% -11.5% 92% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses61 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage126d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 7? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 27? May 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 14? May 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ye said be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 28? May 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on April 24? Apr 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? Apr 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 13 $3 −$2 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 7°C or below on April 9? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on April 7? Apr 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on April 1? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 26? Mar 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 25? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $17 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $19 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 34d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $15 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $10 40d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 44d
Will Ye said be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 53d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $19 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $9 55d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $20 59d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records