Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B8 0xb8b4…1f6e world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$100,504 (-25%) realized −$87,781 · open −$12,723
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%29W / 29L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,761per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46,012now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$887
7 days−$12,996
14 days−$48,155
30 days−$29,179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% −$109,909
finance 9% +$13,925
other 1% −$1,998
sports 1% −$196
politics 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -64.7% -68.1% 25% 25% -36.5%
≤30d 22 -46.1% -51.3% 41% 27% -27.6%
≤90d 58 -15.2% -23.3% 50% 41% -31.2%
all 58 -15.2% -23.3% 50% 41% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 41% -31.2%
10% -30.6% 29% -37.8%
15% ← realistic here -37.3% 21% -43.8%
20% -43.5% 12% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$8,606) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
27.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,888 vs −$5,837 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$46,012
Realized−$87,781
Unrealized−$12,723
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses29 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions31
Markets (closed)58 / 86
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$4,761
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 65¢ 32¢ $27,504 $13,821 −$13,683 (-50%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 27¢ 33¢ $7,097 $8,427 +$1,330 (+19%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 93¢ $5,721 $6,471 +$750 (+13%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 40¢ 69¢ $2,712 $4,661 +$1,949 (+72%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $3,989 $3,798 −$191 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 48¢ 100¢ $1,079 $2,246 +$1,167 (+108%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 35¢ 46¢ $1,075 $1,402 +$327 (+30%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 35¢ 14¢ $2,106 $816 −$1,290 (-61%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $846 $748 −$99 (-12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 51¢ 23¢ $1,496 $678 −$818 (-55%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $661 $619 −$42 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 68¢ 86¢ $414 $527 +$113 (+27%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 40¢ 34¢ $358 $309 −$50 (-14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 7¢ 90¢ $22 $284 +$262 (+1190%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 27¢ $315 $233 −$82 (-26%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Yes 54¢ 5¢ $2,081 $186 −$1,895 (-91%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 54¢ 28¢ $356 $185 −$170 (-48%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 27¢ 44¢ $88 $143 +$55 (+63%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Yes 24¢ 9¢ $292 $109 −$182 (-62%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $124 $97 −$27 (-22%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 59¢ 97¢ $50 $83 +$33 (+65%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $61 $67 +$5 (+8%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? No 32¢ 28¢ $52 $46 −$6 (-11%)
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $118 $13 −$105 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 18 $3,666 +$1,570 +43%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $743 −$683 -92%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $18,229 +$7,164 +39%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $889 −$889 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5,580 −$5,580 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $3,992 −$3,992 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2,286 −$2,286 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $8,301 −$8,300 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5,876 −$5,876 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $28,696 −$28,696 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2,629 +$29 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,907 +$53 +1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $258 −$258 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $411 −$411 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$2 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $19,146 +$15,505 +81%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $20,711 +$2,875 +14%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $9,843 +$1,380 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,538 +$783 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $984 −$421 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 23 $1,149 −$1,122 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $26 −$26 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,993 +$507 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,281 +$4,640 +362%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $2,568 +$465 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $1,395 +$105 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $5,326 −$6,240 -117%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 07 $13,354 −$13,353 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 06 $5,339 −$5,135 -96%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 06 $9,989 −$9,981 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 04 $28,124 −$27,519 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 02 $7,207 −$7,207 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3,185 +$170 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,655 +$2,711 +164%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $8,862 +$4,407 +50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $8,482 +$5,929 +70%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $17,476 +$2,601 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $19,749 +$5,704 +29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $87 +$35 +40%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 24 $8,606 +$1,511 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $11,227 +$1,370 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? Apr 20 $1,007 −$1,004 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 20 $3,244 −$3,217 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 20 $10,670 −$10,210 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 20 $16,950 −$16,433 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $80 −$45 -56%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 12 $1,000 +$259 +26%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 12 $656 −$289 -44%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 11 $4,836 +$21,717 +449%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 10 $1,104 −$166 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $775 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $135 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $23 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $131 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $8 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 74¢ $2,614 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $110 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $73 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $14 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $24 8h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 74¢ $2,622 8h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY No 32¢ $25 8h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY No 32¢ $27 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $4 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $23 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $0 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $0 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $0 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $2 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $13 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $0 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $77 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $2 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $0 17h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $60 27h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 30h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $11,438 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $11,420 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 9¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 9¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,012.26 · official $46,045.01 (match) · 3500 history records