Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:54:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb8b5…280c sports 186 markets active 0h ago coverage 425d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$2,563 (+3%) realized +$3,936 · open −$1,373
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%56W / 103L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$321est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$4,726now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 425d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% +$4,937
crypto 19% −$6,742
sports 18% +$8,259
world 17% +$14,355
politics 8% +$621
tech 6% −$5,471
culture 3% −$3,400
economics 3% −$1,978
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -29.0% -35.8% 21% 21% -29.2%
≤30d 101 +31.3% +18.8% 38% 38% +21.9%
≤90d 136 +32.0% +19.4% 32% 32% -14.5%
all 159 +34.2% +21.5% 35% 35% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.5% 35% -0.2%
10% +9.8% 33% -9.7%
15% -0.8% 32% -18.5%
20% -10.5% 30% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$508) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +57% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,022 vs −$439 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

425d coverage
Net worth$4,726
Realized+$3,936
Unrealized−$1,373
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses56 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$321
Open positions7
Markets (closed)159 / 186
History coverage425d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2,000 $1,807 −$193 (-10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2,000 $1,286 −$714 (-36%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance South Africa 35¢ 36¢ $500 $523 +$23 (+5%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 80¢ $200 $503 +$303 (+152%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $500 $292 −$208 (-42%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $700 $289 −$411 (-59%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Over 12¢ 2¢ $200 $26 −$174 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 28 $204 −$112 -55%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 28 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 28 $203 −$203 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 28 $203 −$203 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 28 $304 −$304 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 28 $229 −$229 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 28 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Jun 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 28 $306 −$306 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $507 −$507 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 28 $708 −$708 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 28 $509 −$509 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 28 $205 −$205 -100%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $759 −$759 -100%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 28 $510 −$510 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 28 $512 −$512 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 28 $103 −$103 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 28 $105 −$105 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 28 $1,034 −$1,034 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 28 $214 −$214 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 28 $1,501 −$1,501 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Jun 28 $210 −$169 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $205 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 35¢ $510 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $306 21h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $507 21h
Panama vs. England: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $305 22h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $759 24h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Alg BUY 3¢ $200 24h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $510 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 2d
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1. BUY 28¢ $496 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $508 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2,057 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,029 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1,029 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea BUY 36¢ $510 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Morocco to win the second half BUY 47¢ $508 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $102 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/ BUY 29¢ $511 3d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $203 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland win o BUY 36¢ $204 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $507 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 91¢ $2,245 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 40¢ $1,018 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia wi BUY 13¢ $205 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 4¢ $103 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,726.43 · official $4,726.43 (match) · 400 history records