Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8b6…9588 sports 224 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$226 (-3%) realized −$270 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%121W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$377
14 days+$134
30 days−$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +7.4% -2.8% 54% 54% +11.6%
≤30d 222 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 51% -13.7%
≤90d 222 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 51% -13.7%
all 222 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 51% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 51% -13.7%
10% -21.7% 48% -21.9%
15% -29.3% 42% -29.5%
20% -36.2% 30% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses121 / 101
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions2
Markets (closed)222 / 224
History coverage21d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Spirit 58¢ 100¢ $40 $69 +$29 (+72%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 58¢ 100¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $202 +$126 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $30 +$23 +76%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $51 +$20 +40%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $30 −$28 -92%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$17 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $203 +$175 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $101 +$69 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $40 +$20 +49%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$55 -54%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$39 +78%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$57 -56%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$17 +82%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$32 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$15 +50%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$24 +48%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$19 +38%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$26 +127%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$27 +262%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $31 +$20 +66%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$9 +29%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$7 -72%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$18 -89%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$112 +365%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$20 -66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$14 -68%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $25 −$5 -20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$15 -74%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$17 +55%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$7 +32%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$10 +48%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $30 +$17 +57%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $101 +$34 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 58¢ $20 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 57¢ $20 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 73¢ $30 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $202 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $54 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $71 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $51 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 6¢ $3 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 69¢ $30 29h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 78¢ $37 31h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $20 31h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $30 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 52¢ $101 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $170 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 35¢ $29 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 59¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 95¢ $60 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 63¢ $40 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 30¢ $46 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 64¢ $101 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 31¢ $20 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 94¢ $90 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $51 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 23¢ $44 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 51¢ $101 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $37 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner SELL LOS 97¢ $82 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.60 · official $103.60 (match) · 423 history records