Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8b8…5220 politics 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$3
sports 21% −$1
economics 20% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 22 -4.7% -13.7% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage164d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $209 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 27 $302 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 19 $117 $0 -0%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $334 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $100 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 14 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 13 $112 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 13 $386 +$1 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $499 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 09 $500 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 8m
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 36m
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 5h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 9h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 9h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 11h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 13h
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 98¢ $7 139d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 98¢ $12 139d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 98¢ $7 139d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 98¢ $12 139d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $12 145d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $12 145d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $12 145d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $12 145d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $450 152d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $46 152d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $451 152d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $46 152d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 99¢ $290 153d
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $117 153d
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $90 153d
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $90 153d
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $117 153d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $200 153d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $90 153d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $333 156d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 156d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.33 · official $407.33 (match) · 55 history records