Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8bb…daf7 weather 314 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate91%285W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% +$1
crypto 20% −$3
other 7% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 244 +0.0% -9.5% 93% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 312 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 6% -9.6%
all 312 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses285 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)312 / 314
History coverage43d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? No 98¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? No 97¢ 89¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 7? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 14m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $6 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $6 32h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $6 44h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 44h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.46 · official $11.52 (match) · 637 history records