Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb8bd…478f sports 1196 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,413 (+2%) realized +$15,456 · open −$43
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%666W / 528L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$528per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$3,991est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$439
7 days−$28,875
14 days−$25,786
30 days−$6,842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$7,393
other 6% +$4,502
crypto 0% −$159
world 0% −$7
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -66.6% -69.8% 15% 14% -78.3%
≤30d 368 -9.7% -18.3% 44% 43% -18.6%
≤90d 840 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 48% -9.9%
all 1194 -3.1% -12.4% 56% 48% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 48% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 40% -16.7%
15% -28.4% 32% -24.7%
20% -35.4% 27% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$554) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$274 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$15,456
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses666 / 528
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$3,991
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1194 / 1196
History coverage130d
Avg bet$528
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $204 $201 −$2 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $85 +$119 +139%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $31 +$90 +292%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Zandschulp (+1.5) Jun 17 $36 −$3 -7%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $137 +$169 +123%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 17 $34 −$33 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $99 −$98 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $98 +$137 +139%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $21 +$2 +11%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $105 +$98 +93%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Hijikata vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Norrie vs. Fokina: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $53 −$52 -98%
Buse vs. Giron: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $51 +$50 +98%
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5) Jun 16 $86 +$119 +137%
Nakashima vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -98%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 16 $60 −$59 -98%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $245 −$243 -99%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $255 −$253 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $208 −$205 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $57 −$55 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $111 +$154 +139%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 +$74 +197%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 −$167 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $103 −$101 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $217 −$214 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $260 +$206 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $154 +$347 +226%
Will IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Marcos Giron: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$32 +129%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $25 −$22 -85%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $33 +$27 +82%
Bellucci vs. Bolt: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $30 +$31 +105%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5) Jun 14 $36 +$41 +114%
Vukic vs. Wendelken: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Landaluce vs. Gentzsch: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $33 −$32 -99%
Zachary Svajda vs. Martin Damm: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Daniel (+1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$31 -99%
Sonego vs. Basilashvili: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $202 −$199 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $208 −$204 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $198 +$208 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $207 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $204 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $42 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $85 2h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $120 3h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 25¢ $31 4h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Zandschulp (+1.5) SELL Paul 48¢ $33 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $306 14h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Fritz 51¢ $34 15h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Zandschulp (+1.5) BUY Paul 50¢ $36 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $137 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $99 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $235 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes $10 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 17¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes $10 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $98 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $105 26h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 23¢ $51 27h
Hijikata vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 27h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 50¢ $50 27h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 17¢ $51 27h
Norrie vs. Fokina: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 50¢ $53 27h
Nakashima vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $33 40h
Nakashima vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 48¢ $17 40h
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) BUY Mensik 41¢ $13 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.52 · official $201.52 (match) · 3126 history records