Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

B8 0xb8bf…366a other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$4,132 (+24%) realized +$4,123 · open +$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$3,420per market

Trades / day8.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$7,709now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-12.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-3.5%	-12.7%	67%	67%	+29.7%
≤30d	3	-3.5%	-12.7%	67%	67%	+29.7%
≤90d	3	-3.5%	-12.7%	67%	67%	+29.7%
all	3	-3.5%	-12.7%	67%	67%	+29.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.9 tr/day

realistic slip~14%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-12.7%	67%	+29.7%
10% ← realistic here	-21.0%	67%	+17.3%
15%	-28.7%	67%	+6.0%
20%	-35.7%	0%	-4.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +43% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +43% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$2,035 vs −$25 · ×82.37 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×164.74 per $1 lost it wins $164.74

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$7,709

Realized+$4,123

Unrealized+$9

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3,420

Trades / day8.9

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$5,000	$5,033	+$33 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$2,700	$2,676	−$24 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5,578	+$2,211	+40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$3,726	+$1,860	+50%
France leading at halftime?	Jun 16	$25	−$25	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$709	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$2,026	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$5,036	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$5,578	9h
France leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	51¢	$21	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	25h
France leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	50¢	$4	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$2,091	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$1,433	28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,708.74 · official $7,709.21 (match) · 12 history records