Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8bf…f179 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$1
politics 21% $0
sports 13% −$10
other 12% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 75% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 18 +1.6% -8.1% 44% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 18 +1.6% -8.1% 44% 11% -9.4%
all 48 -1.5% -10.9% 38% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -10.4%
10% -19.4% 2% -19.0%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage285d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $33 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $33 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $32 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$3 +25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $44 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $33 −$4 -12%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $38 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2025? Oct 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $6 $0 -7%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Sep 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $38 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $35 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $3 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $31 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $33 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $22 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $33 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $28 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $32 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $14 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $19 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $32 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records