Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B8 0xb8c4…12ac politics 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$11
other 28% −$6
world 14% −$2
finance 8% −$2
sports 5% −$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$850) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage91d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,264 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,266 −$2 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect Jun 18 $1,294 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 18 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $84 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 May 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $44 $0 -1%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $863 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $850 −$1 -0%
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? May 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $845 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 11 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Mar 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $75 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Sungjae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will Artemis II launch by March 31? Mar 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Mar 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,249 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $53 2h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $12 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,194 2h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $16 2h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,263 2h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $24 2h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,235 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 2h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $954 3h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 3h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 3h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $288 3h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,244 3h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,265 25h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $53 25h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $16 25h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,208 25h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $23 25h
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL No 100¢ $1,293 25h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 26h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 26h
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $1,273 26h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,018 26h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $309 26h
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $21 26h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 26h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,329 26h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $84 33d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $69 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records