Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B8 0xb8c4…34bf sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$78 (+14%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$193
sports 35% +$322
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+81.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +100.9% +81.8% 35% 35% +13.2%
≤30d 26 +100.9% +81.8% 35% 35% +13.2%
≤90d 26 +100.9% +81.8% 35% 35% +13.2%
all 26 +100.9% +81.8% 35% 35% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +81.8% 35% +13.2%
10% +64.4% 35% +2.4%
15% +48.5% 35% -7.5%
20% +33.9% 35% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +96% → late +106% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$15 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $37 +$8 +20%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 +$58 +234%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $206 −$90 -44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$105 +2037%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 +$7 +25%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$18 -75%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$30 +970%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$62 +202%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$28 +194%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4 +$6 +140%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$86 +351%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $57 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $15 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 10¢ $28 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $3 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $6 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $87 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 5h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records