Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:00:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8c5…96f5 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%19W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$10
world 26% −$2
politics 20% −$2
sports 9% +$1
economics 3% +$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 23 -1.5% -10.9% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 37 -1.3% -10.7% 32% 0% -9.7%
all 53 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage348d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 69¢ 68¢ $83 $82 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $181 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $114 −$2 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $126 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $93 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $130 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $192 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $187 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $98 −$5 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $89 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $97 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $185 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $7 −$2 -24%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 23 $730 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $374 −$2 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $144 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $28 −$4 -15%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $36 +$1 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $953 −$2 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 17 $588 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $721 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $135 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? Jul 12 $136 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 12 $148 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 11 $105 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 11 $33 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 11 $6 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 11 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $83 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $83 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $83 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $83 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $83 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $82 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $59 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $92 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $92 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $84 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $76 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $84 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $85 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.20 · official $81.00 · 216 history records