Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8c5…dd45 sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-6%) realized −$74 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%35W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days−$4
14 days−$110
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$68
sports 23% −$23
crypto 3% −$16
world 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.9% -12.2% 65% 59% -10.1%
≤30d 56 -8.7% -17.4% 62% 48% -17.0%
≤90d 56 -8.7% -17.4% 62% 48% -17.0%
all 56 -8.7% -17.4% 62% 48% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 48% -17.0%
10% -25.3% 21% -24.9%
15% -32.5% 18% -32.2%
20% -39.1% 9% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses35 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage15d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-8%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 84¢ 84¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $15 +$5 +30%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $27 +$3 +12%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $42 −$15 -35%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $11 −$10 -88%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 +$3 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $9 +$1 +12%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $17 +$3 +19%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$22 +107%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $160 +$19 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $21 +$10 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$14 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $55 +$6 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $66 −$5 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $53 −$36 -68%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $48 −$23 -48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$14 +85%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 +$4 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$17 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $101 +$22 +22%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$10 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $26 −$12 -46%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 07 $6 +$2 +44%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $8 +$2 +20%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$4 +56%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $7 −$1 -20%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $14 +$6 +40%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $6 −$2 -33%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$5 +109%
Overwatch: SuperBad vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 07 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $8 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $34 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 46¢ $27 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 7¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 71¢ $14 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $13 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $3 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 56¢ $11 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $27 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $22 7h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $9 19h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 85¢ $42 19h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 35¢ $1 20h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 35¢ $1 20h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 35¢ $3 20h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 35¢ $1 20h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 35¢ $2 20h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 35¢ $2 20h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 84¢ $17 20h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 50¢ $10 20h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $179 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.86 · official $67.86 (match) · 198 history records