Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb8c6…7b39 sports 292 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,502 (-6%) realized −$2,425 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%130W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$467est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days−$1,526
14 days−$7,515
30 days−$4,112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$65
other 25% −$1,349
world 0% −$122
crypto 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 34% -24.6%
≤30d 215 -6.6% -15.5% 47% 33% -22.6%
≤90d 266 +3.0% -6.8% 49% 37% -14.0%
all 266 +3.0% -6.8% 49% 37% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 37% -14.0%
10% -15.7% 28% -22.3%
15% -23.8% 25% -29.8%
20% -31.3% 22% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$124 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$2,201
Realized−$2,425
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses130 / 136
Est. fees paid−$467
Open positions26
Markets (closed)266 / 292
History coverage84d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Juan Estevez 78¢ 85¢ $219 $238 +$20 (+9%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 44¢ $231 $210 −$22 (-9%)
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 61¢ 62¢ $156 $157 +$1 (+1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $155 $154 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Over 26¢ 25¢ $120 $116 −$5 (-4%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 85¢ 86¢ $103 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 42¢ 42¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Korea Republic 93¢ 92¢ $99 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 54¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 11¢ 56¢ $18 $93 +$75 (+405%)
Iraq leading at halftime? No 96¢ 96¢ $91 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 24¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 93¢ 94¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $75 $70 −$4 (-6%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 91¢ 90¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Under 94¢ 93¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Under 99¢ 96¢ $61 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 98¢ 98¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 9¢ 10¢ $46 $48 +$3 (+6%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 26¢ $48 $46 −$3 (-5%)
England vs. Ghana: Ghana 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 98¢ 52¢ $76 $41 −$35 (-46%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 11¢ 6¢ $34 $17 −$17 (-50%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) New York Mets 63¢ 62¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $193 +$334 +172%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $90 −$88 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $62 +$1 +2%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $32 +$1,168 +3640%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $172 +$179 +104%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-4.5) Jun 18 $38 $0 +1%
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) Jun 18 $65 +$2 +4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $123 +$50 +41%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $97 +$388 +400%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser Jun 18 $29 +$1 +3%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Leo Raquillet Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $77 +$5 +6%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 18 $39 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $123 +$33 +27%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $64 +$6 +10%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $102 −$99 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $17 +$13 +75%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $25 +$22 +85%
ITF Mohammedia: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Elina Nepliy Jun 18 $57 −$56 -98%
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Amandine Hesse Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $89 +$12 +14%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot Jun 18 $6 $0 +6%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $17 +$18 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $170 −$167 -98%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $70 +$78 +112%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $60 −$59 -98%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $78 +$2 +2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $228 −$224 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$4 +8%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $267 +$57 +21%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $109 +$73 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $168 −$166 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $150 +$90 +60%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $150 +$413 +276%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $200 −$51 -26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $33 −$32 -97%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 17 $181 +$112 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $69 +$9 +14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $42 +$6 +14%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $45 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $51 10m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 11¢ $1 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 11¢ $15 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 11¢ $1 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 11¢ $1 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 11¢ $1 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 11¢ $2 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 11¢ $14 20m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $49 26m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 78¢ $209 34m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 78¢ $8 34m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 78¢ $2 34m
England vs. Ghana: Ghana 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $70 41m
England vs. Ghana: Ghana 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 41m
England vs. Ghana: Ghana 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $6 41m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 25¢ $90 41m
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $158 41m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $40 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 3¢ $32 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 11¢ $1 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 11¢ $1 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 11¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 11¢ $12 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $159 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $8 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 3h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 93¢ $99 3h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 0¢ $3 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $77 3h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Reyer Venezia 44¢ $87 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,200.62 · official $2,179.81 (match) · 2386 history records