Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb8ca…f380
sports · 1300 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$150 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$150 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$14
Realized−$150
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses621 / 663
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1284 / 1300
History coverage27d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day109.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 16 History 1284 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 82¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Spurs 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Spurs 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Japan 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 92¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Spurs 94¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Australia 70¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 76¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +37%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -42%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -39%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -47%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% −$76
other 20% −$40
crypto 4% −$25
weather 2% −$3
politics 0% −$5
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $1 44m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 95¢ $1 45m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 87¢ $0 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL No 68¢ $0 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 77¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) SELL Qatar 95¢ $1 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $0 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 SELL Under 95¢ $1 4h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1 6h
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) SELL Spurs 67¢ $1 6h
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) BUY Spurs 84¢ $1 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $1 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 9h
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 91¢ $1 9h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova SELL Emma Raducanu 95¢ $1 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 16h
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Spurs 79¢ $1 16h
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $1 16h
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 68¢ $1 16h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $1 18h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 64¢ $1 18h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 65¢ $1 21h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $1 21h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -1.3% -10.7% 61% 46% -10.7%
≤30d 1284 -5.2% -14.2% 48% 39% -14.7%
≤90d 1284 -5.2% -14.2% 48% 39% -14.7%
all 1284 -5.2% -14.2% 48% 39% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover109.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 39% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 28% -22.8%
15% -29.9% 19% -30.3%
20% -36.8% 11% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.97 · official $12.91 · 3500 history records