Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb8cd…379e crypto 867 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (269 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,174 (-12%) realized −$2,165 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate44%475W / 605L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day269.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,844
7 days−$3,018
14 days−$2,732
30 days−$2,732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,344
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (269 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 913 -36.7% -42.7% 40% 24% -26.3%
≤30d 1080 -30.4% -37.0% 44% 28% -21.6%
≤90d 1080 -30.4% -37.0% 44% 28% -21.6%
all 1080 -30.4% -37.0% 44% 28% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover269.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.0% 28% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -43.1% 15% -29.1%
15% -48.6% 8% -35.9%
20% -53.6% 5% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$2,165
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses475 / 605
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1080 / 867
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day269.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1080 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 79¢ 48¢ $24 $15 −$9 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 1¢ 10¢ $1 $6 +$6 (+950%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$3 -162%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$30 -85%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $17 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $17 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $22 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $14 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $18 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $23 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.45 · official $20.85 (match) · 3500 history records