Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8d2…1a29 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$9
other 24% −$1
politics 21% $0
culture 8% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -12.9% -21.2% 11% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 9 -12.9% -21.2% 11% 0% -12.3%
all 31 -3.6% -12.8% 39% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 3% -10.5%
10% -21.1% 3% -19.1%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage326d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $56 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $65 −$4 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $31 −$3 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 11 $2 $0 +25%
Houthi strike on Israel before August? Aug 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $12 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8? Aug 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 02 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 30 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 29 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $63 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $27 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $10 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $17 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $27 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $27 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $16 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $16 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $16 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $16 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $6 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $23 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $2 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $28 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $30 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $34 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.67 · official $3.50 (match) · 136 history records