Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:14:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B8 0xb8d2…c66b world 135 markets active 6h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32,507 (+3%) realized +$28,498 · open +$4,009
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate66%83W / 42L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$7,418per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$38,679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$460
14 days+$4,019
30 days+$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$18,990
world 38% +$6,264
other 10% +$6,934
politics 2% +$2,344
sports 1% −$1,756
economics 0% +$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +18.2% +7.0% 100% 100% +7.0%
≤30d 14 -9.1% -17.7% 64% 14% -8.8%
≤90d 28 -8.9% -17.6% 68% 18% -6.1%
all 125 -2.3% -11.6% 66% 22% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 22% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 11% -15.7%
15% -27.8% 10% -23.8%
20% -34.8% 10% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$11,600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$951 vs −$1,187 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$38,679
Realized+$28,498
Unrealized+$4,009
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses83 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions10
Markets (closed)125 / 135
History coverage610d
Avg bet$7,418
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $14,800 $16,275 +$1,475 (+10%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 85¢ 88¢ $11,000 $11,417 +$417 (+4%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $3,000 $3,327 +$327 (+11%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? No 75¢ 83¢ $3,000 $3,320 +$320 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $1,600 $3,145 +$1,545 (+97%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 87¢ 81¢ $470 $440 −$30 (-6%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 60¢ $150 $279 +$129 (+86%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $300 $157 −$143 (-48%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 15¢ $150 $109 −$41 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2,522 +$460 +18%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2,000 +$2,642 +132%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $18,000 +$967 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $7,600 −$5,376 -71%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3,000 +$148 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $3,000 +$72 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10,000 +$341 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 08 $5,000 −$182 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $443 −$433 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $16,600 +$782 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $15,059 +$812 +5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $5,000 −$195 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $5,015 +$204 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $8,000 +$337 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $2,000 +$77 +4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? May 18 $1,800 −$653 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $10,000 +$336 +3%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, May 04 $6,000 +$1,046 +17%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? May 01 $14,000 +$2,192 +16%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $19,000 +$722 +4%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 23 $18,000 +$1,180 +7%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 13 $500 −$379 -76%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $7,500 −$4,457 -59%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $1,000 −$558 -56%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $18,900 +$5,824 +31%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 01 $3,000 +$308 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $15,000 +$1,457 +10%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner Mar 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-11-01? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 18 $170 −$170 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Mar 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 31? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Chiefs vs. Bills Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 18 $8,735 −$2,009 -23%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Djokovic (+2.5) Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5) Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Texans vs. Chiefs Mar 18 $300 −$141 -47%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Mar 18 $450 −$450 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? Mar 17 $5,000 −$564 -11%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $19,010 +$2,425 +13%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $14,000 +$2,931 +21%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 08 $11,001 +$711 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $1,000 +$3,937 +394%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 04 $5,000 −$1,768 -35%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Mar 01 $30 −$30 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $100 +$232 +232%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $4,300 −$1,396 -32%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $1,000 +$639 +64%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $1,000 +$2,030 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 81¢ $489 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $1,000 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $2,000 22h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $3,000 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 82¢ $2,000 24h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $3,000 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $511 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $2,011 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $6,000 8d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 11d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 87¢ $1,006 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,642 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $4,000 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $735 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $1,489 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2,000 16d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $5,000 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $100 16d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $3,000 17d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $4,000 17d
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $154 17d
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 32¢ $204 17d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $153 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 17d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 80¢ $1,794 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 80¢ $2,011 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $1,789 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4,000 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5,000 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,679.05 · official $38,679.10 (match) · 608 history records