Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8db…458d weather 218 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,723 (-7%) realized −$1,755 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate38%81W / 131L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day125.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days−$532
14 days−$1,726
30 days−$1,726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1,695
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -32.4% -38.8% 27% 8% -16.6%
≤30d 212 -27.1% -34.0% 38% 9% -16.0%
≤90d 212 -27.1% -34.0% 38% 9% -16.0%
all 212 -27.1% -34.0% 38% 9% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.0% 9% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 6% -24.0%
15% -46.1% 4% -31.4%
20% -51.4% 3% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$1,755
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses81 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)212 / 218
History coverage12d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day125.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $61 $95 +$33 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 35°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 15 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$13 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $125 −$103 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $242 +$89 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $118 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $26 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $18 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.07 · official $114.07 (match) · 1652 history records