Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8db…d130 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%22W / 105L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$43
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$20
other 24% −$32
sports 23% −$15
crypto 8% +$5
economics 7% −$2
culture 6% −$2
world 3% −$5
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.8% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 66 -1.3% -10.7% 6% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 112 -0.8% -10.2% 15% 0% -9.9%
all 127 -0.7% -10.1% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses22 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage107d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $47 −$1 -1%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 18 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $51 −$2 -3%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $148 −$2 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $283 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $47 $0 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $157 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $52 −$2 -5%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 10 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 10 $46 −$12 -27%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $51 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $377 −$8 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 04 $52 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $19 −$1 -6%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $183 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $10 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $62 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $287 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $63 1h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $49 2h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $51 8h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 8h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 12h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $47 13h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $47 18h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 96¢ $53 18h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 98¢ $54 25h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $50 26h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 94¢ $51 33h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 34h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 34h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $41 34h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $41 41h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $43 42h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $43 46h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $14 47h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $58 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $40 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.57 · official $62.57 (match) · 533 history records