Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B8 0xb8e2…3022 crypto 414 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%401W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day51.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$7
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$30
finance 2% −$18
other 2% +$2
sports 1% +$2
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 330 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 1% -9.4%
≤30d 411 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 411 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.3%
all 411 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 1% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses401 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)411 / 414
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day51.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$2 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic pr Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $20 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 6h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 6h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $15 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.24 · official $54.23 (match) · 830 history records