Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:24:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8e2…c595 weather 44 markets active 3h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-4%) realized −$21 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$77
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$23
crypto 1% −$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -47.8% -52.8% 20% 20% -51.6%
≤30d 39 -1.6% -11.0% 31% 26% -12.8%
≤90d 43 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 30% -14.5%
all 43 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 30% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 30% -14.5%
10% -18.5% 28% -22.7%
15% -26.4% 26% -30.2%
20% -33.6% 21% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage79d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Yes 66¢ 98¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +161%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $35 −$35 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 +$13 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 +$7 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 +$11 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $5 +$18 +351%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on May 28? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 25? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 25? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 29? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on May 30? May 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 27? May 27 $5 +$51 +983%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $21 −$11 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24? May 24 $15 +$87 +580%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $26 +$31 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 23? May 23 $20 −$7 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? May 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22? May 22 $20 +$8 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 21? May 21 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 13? May 13 $15 −$14 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 12? May 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 02 $1 +$1 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 11d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? SELL Yes 98¢ $26 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 2? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.94 · official $8.94 (match) · 85 history records