Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8e2…7df9 world 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$72 (+10%) realized +$120 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$70
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$18
world 22% −$95
crypto 14% +$205
politics 12% −$41
economics 3% −$20
tech 1% −$2
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +33.8% +21.0% 67% 67% +36.9%
≤30d 3 +33.8% +21.0% 67% 67% +36.9%
≤90d 7 -42.7% -48.1% 29% 29% +20.3%
all 41 -29.6% -36.3% 20% 17% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 17% +12.1%
10% -42.4% 17% +1.4%
15% -48.0% 17% -8.4%
20% -53.1% 17% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$8 · ×5.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized+$120
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 33
Open positions15
Markets (closed)41 / 56
History coverage170d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $120 $108 −$12 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for Inter Miami CF next? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-52%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 48¢ 10¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-80%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Will US Bank fail by end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$58 +57%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $20 +$29 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 19 $4 −$4 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will crypto payment cards volume hit $1.5B by March 31? Mar 11 $6 +$12 +203%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $11 +$13 +121%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Feb 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Feb 03 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Feb 03 $11 +$111 +1011%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Jan 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 29 $35 +$132 +376%
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? Jan 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "2026" this week? (January 18) Jan 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Detroit speech on Tues Jan 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jan 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026? Jan 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026? Jan 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during o Jan 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility? Jan 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 07 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $113 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 13h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 67d
Will US Bank fail by end of 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 67d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for Inter Miami CF next? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 67d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 67d
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 67d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 67d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 67d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 67d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 67d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY Yes 7¢ $10 120d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio BUY Yes 28¢ $3 120d
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 120d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 124d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 124d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 124d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 141d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 141d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 141d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 141d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 141d
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.30 · official $229.31 (match) · 95 history records