Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8e4…2dae world 137 markets active 5h ago coverage 37d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$76,881 (+18%) realized +$78,299 · open −$1,418
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate56%70W / 55L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$3,204per market
Trades / day89.3pace
Fees−$1,972est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$391
7 days−$390
14 days+$17,494
30 days+$30,530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$24,130
sports 29% +$8,598
other 16% +$6,383
crypto 6% +$1,656
politics 4% +$623
tech 3% +$785
culture 1% +$535
finance 0% −$270
economics 0% +$465
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -26.2% -33.2% 60% 40% -15.9%
≤30d 82 +15.1% +4.1% 56% 32% -0.4%
≤90d 125 +26.0% +14.0% 56% 31% +1.2%
all 125 +26.0% +14.0% 56% 31% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.0% 31% +1.2%
10% +3.1% 21% -8.5%
15% ← realistic here -6.9% 14% -17.4%
20% -16.0% 12% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$2,520) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$901 vs −$340 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,642
Realized+$78,299
Unrealized−$1,418
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses70 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1,972
Open positions22
Markets (closed)125 / 137
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$3,204
Trades / day89.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 66¢ 100¢ $497 $755 +$258 (+52%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $197 $209 +$11 (+6%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $212 $170 −$42 (-20%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $201 $157 −$44 (-22%)
Elon Bull Run Parlay No 91¢ 96¢ $84 $89 +$4 (+5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $143 $70 −$73 (-51%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $81 $38 −$44 (-54%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $35 $30 −$4 (-13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 33¢ $1,445 $27 −$1,418 (-98%)
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Yes $23 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $20 −$4 (-19%)
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Alcaraz 38¢ 48¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+26%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes $18 $15 −$3 (-18%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 28¢ $27 $10 −$17 (-64%)
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 85¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will there be 5+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft? No $14 $4 −$10 (-72%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes $36 $2 −$34 (-94%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Yes 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 33¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+200%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 29 $24 +$30 +125%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $820 +$180 +22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $880 −$600 -68%
Will there be 1+ trades in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 25 $365 +$11 +3%
2026 NBA Draft: Any Team to Trade into Top 10? Jun 24 $437 −$437 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 22 $3,438 +$427 +12%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $872 +$137 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,499 −$261 -17%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $3,503 +$35 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $240 +$14 +6%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $180 −$180 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 18 $27 +$18 +66%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $1,449 +$447 +31%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $227 −$127 -56%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $678 −$78 -12%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,446 +$301 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $15,274 +$1,085 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $58,276 +$15,672 +27%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $411 +$108 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $230 +$60 +26%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $606 −$228 -38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $476 +$879 +184%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $771 +$1,862 +241%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 14 $367 +$36 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 14 $13 −$10 -78%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 14 $577 −$102 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8,901 +$5,043 +57%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $855 +$67 +8%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5,676 −$3,327 -59%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4,180 −$692 -17%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,340 −$781 -33%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $85,299 +$7,221 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $9,082 −$13 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $165 +$9 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $7,949 −$1,192 -15%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $3,677 −$496 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,392 −$892 -37%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $175 −$161 -92%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $270 −$260 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $4,342 −$729 -17%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $64 +$21 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $1,270 −$961 -76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,520 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3,300 +$11 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $173 −$170 -99%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $924 −$191 -21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $281 −$274 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $3,768 +$709 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 14¢ $140 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 14¢ $110 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 82¢ $820 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 42¢ $266 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 46¢ $364 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 46¢ $87 6h
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? BUY Yes $0 34h
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? SELL Yes $14 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? BUY Yes $35 3d
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? BUY Yes $12 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3,586 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,642.17 · official $1,642.83 (match) · 3500 history records