Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8e5…7479 weather 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-1%) realized −$77 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate87%91W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$91
14 days−$73
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$105
crypto 9% +$17
world 2% +$4
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.1% -18.7% 86% 0% -19.4%
≤30d 30 +9.3% -1.1% 90% 3% -13.1%
≤90d 103 +0.6% -9.0% 86% 6% -10.6%
all 105 +0.6% -9.0% 87% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 6% -10.5%
10% -17.7% 2% -19.1%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.9%
20% -32.9% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses91 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage110d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $128 −$103 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $120 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $118 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $116 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $116 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $113 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $107 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $102 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $99 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $95 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $2 +$6 +395%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 30? May 31 $82 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $57 −$18 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $111 −$54 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 28? May 28 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $107 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $105 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 25? May 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 25? May 24 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 24? May 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 23? May 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 18? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 15? May 15 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 14? May 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13? May 13 $95 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 12? May 12 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 11? May 11 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 10? May 10 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 9? May 09 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8? May 08 $97 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 8? May 08 $127 −$31 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 7? May 07 $125 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 6? May 06 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 6? May 06 $115 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 5? May 05 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 5? May 05 $112 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 4? May 04 $110 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 2? May 02 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 1? May 01 $105 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $105 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $105 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $105 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL No 20¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $128 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $128 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $127 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $127 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $126 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $126 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $120 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $120 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $118 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $118 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $116 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $117 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $116 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $115 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $113 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $114 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? BUY No 94¢ $107 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $107 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 95¢ $102 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $103 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $102 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $102 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? BUY No 97¢ $99 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $99 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $98 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $98 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.61 · official $105.61 (match) · 231 history records