Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8e7…b608 politics 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$113 (-0%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate4%6W / 136L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$14
politics 34% −$14
sports 8% −$84
economics 5% −$2
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 142 -3.8% -13.0% 4% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 1% -9.9%
10% -21.3% 1% -18.5%
15% -28.9% 1% -26.4%
20% -35.9% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses6 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage127d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $181 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $168 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $165 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $772 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $203 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $153 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $354 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $357 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $202 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $177 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $155 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $395 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 09 $157 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $440 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $336 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $204 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $196 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $213 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 30 $183 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $174 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $152 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 10h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 10h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 14h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 14h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 16h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $18 22h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $18 26h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 34h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 44h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 15d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $181 24d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $181 24d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $168 24d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $168 24d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $165 25d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $165 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $180 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $180 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 430 history records