Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8e7…06c1 crypto 339 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$270 (-2%) realized −$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%80W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$454
7 days−$1,198
14 days−$1,238
30 days−$1,238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$1,935
other 17% −$722
sports 7% +$2,472
finance 4% −$327
tech 1% −$116
world 1% −$76
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -10.5% -19.0% 30% 28% -32.1%
≤30d 103 -8.6% -17.3% 31% 29% -32.4%
≤90d 309 -32.0% -38.4% 22% 20% -16.4%
all 339 -18.1% -25.9% 24% 22% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 22% -15.7%
10% -33.0% 20% -23.7%
15% -39.4% 19% -31.1%
20% -45.4% 16% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$24 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses80 / 259
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)339 / 339
History coverage90d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 339 Trades
no open positions (137 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 −$63 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$7 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $74 −$21 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $241 −$235 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $38 −$26 -68%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $168 −$165 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $370 −$350 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $158 +$133 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $147 +$70 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $80 +$120 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$15 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$20 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$64 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$10 -59%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $53 −$47 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $75 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $82 −$78 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $53 +$114 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 961 history records