Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8e9…f1bc crypto 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$168 (-0%) realized +$16 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%74W / 113L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,673
7 days−$7,553
14 days−$5,763
30 days−$5,763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$3,387
world 11% +$1,721
other 9% −$1,158
sports 4% +$2,694
finance 2% −$626
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -60.8% -64.6% 19% 18% -35.7%
≤30d 131 -46.2% -51.3% 20% 18% -29.4%
≤90d 187 -3.2% -12.4% 40% 35% -10.8%
all 187 -3.2% -12.4% 40% 35% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 35% -10.8%
10% -20.8% 30% -19.4%
15% -28.4% 27% -27.2%
20% -35.5% 22% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +55% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$139 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$626
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses74 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions5
Markets (closed)187 / 192
History coverage85d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $210 $1 −$209 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $619 −$619 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $204 +$312 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $205 −$202 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $1,006 +$74 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $209 −$209 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $314 −$314 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $523 −$523 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $308 −$308 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $313 +$503 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$105 +101%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $404 +$201 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$47 +46%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$228 +223%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$486 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $207 +$181 +88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $370 +$108 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 14m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $516 15m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 30m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,080 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $816 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $625.60 · official $625.60 (match) · 633 history records