Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8ed…156f weather 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,134 (-10%) realized −$1,142 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate20%37W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$705
14 days−$849
30 days−$1,048
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% −$314
finance 36% −$562
other 11% −$114
world 4% −$4
crypto 2% −$64
sports 2% −$9
tech 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -17.8% -25.7% 11% 6% -20.6%
≤30d 169 -9.3% -17.9% 18% 6% -16.6%
≤90d 186 -11.1% -19.5% 20% 7% -16.4%
all 186 -11.1% -19.5% 20% 7% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 7% -16.4%
10% -27.2% 6% -24.4%
15% -34.3% 4% -31.7%
20% -40.7% 3% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$1,142
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses37 / 149
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)186 / 187
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Yes 78¢ 87¢ $66 $74 +$8 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 21? No 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$6 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$7 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 22 $62 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $81 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 22 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $76 −$3 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22? Jun 21 $42 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 21 $164 −$15 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? Jun 21 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? Jun 21 $9 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 21 $232 −$12 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? Jun 21 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 21 $35 −$2 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 21 $51 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $31 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 21 $69 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? Jun 21 $43 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $87 −$5 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $60 −$21 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $23 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 21? Jun 20 $38 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 20 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $25 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 20 $71 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 21? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 21? Jun 20 $3 $0 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $68 +$17 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 20 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? Jun 20 $83 −$5 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 19 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 19 $79 −$87 -110%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$3 -147%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 19 $99 −$42 -43%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 19 $45 −$4 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 19 $2 −$4 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? SELL No 39¢ $7 23m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 27m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 59¢ $11 27m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? SELL No 59¢ $4 32m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 33m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 33m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 59¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? SELL No 58¢ $46 35m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 59¢ $12 37m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 59¢ $12 37m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 59¢ $12 37m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 59¢ $12 37m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 78¢ $82 49m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 76¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 77¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 77¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 77¢ $64 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 83¢ $87 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 84¢ $88 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 71¢ $73 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $76 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22? SELL No 52¢ $30 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 53¢ $3 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 53¢ $10 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 53¢ $3 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22? SELL No 52¢ $11 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 53¢ $16 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.28 · official $73.95 (match) · 3500 history records