Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B8 0xb8ee…1a94 other 33 markets active 2d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+11%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$5
sports 34% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +9.3% -1.1% 20% 20% -14.4%
≤30d 33 +17.5% +6.3% 27% 27% +0.2%
≤90d 33 +17.5% +6.3% 27% 27% +0.2%
all 33 +17.5% +6.3% 27% 27% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 27% +0.2%
10% -3.8% 27% -9.4%
15% -13.1% 27% -18.1%
20% -21.6% 18% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1352%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +145%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 45h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 45h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records