Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B8 0xb8ee…f3a7 sports 49 markets active 23h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+4%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%27W / 17L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$4
crypto 15% −$5
other 11% +$3
world 2% +$1
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +1.5% -8.2% 61% 57% -7.7%
≤30d 44 +1.5% -8.2% 61% 57% -7.7%
≤90d 44 +1.5% -8.2% 61% 57% -7.7%
all 44 +1.5% -8.2% 61% 57% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 57% -7.7%
10% -17.0% 50% -16.6%
15% -25.0% 41% -24.6%
20% -32.4% 25% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses27 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)44 / 49
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? No 71¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Ghana 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 73¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +39%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +45%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 +$4 +212%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +178%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$1 +61%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +92%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +92%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$5 +224%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +64%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +144%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +88%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +41%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 28h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 92¢ $2 28h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 100¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 29h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 30h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 71¢ $2 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $2 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 56¢ $6 30h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 31h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 36¢ $0 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $2 38h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 79¢ $2 38h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 67¢ $2 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $2 38h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $2 38h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 73¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 81¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.93 · official $13.93 (match) · 101 history records